Watford 1–0 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Watford

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Norwich

I. Sarr 39'

12/26/2020

Championship · Round 21Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 60+ matches

Watford41%

×Draw26%

Norwich32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.19

Watford

1.38

Norwich

1.19

Watford creates 16% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 60 away

1.29

creates per match

1.22

1.16

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Watford

1.29

Norwich

1.22

allows per match

Watford

1.16

Norwich

1.47

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Watford-0.02on par

Norwich+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Watford or draw

68%

Watford or Norwich

74%

Draw or Norwich

59%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

19%

Norwich wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

75%

Watford 2+ goals

40%

Watford 3+ goals

16%

Norwich 1+ goals

70%

Norwich 2+ goals

33%

Norwich 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

56%

Norwich (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 62 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + Norwich defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Norwich attack 1.22 + Watford defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Watford scores more

41%

level

26%

Norwich scores more

32%

Watford at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

E. Buendía

Norwich · M

7.9

Match Events

18'

Étienne Capoue

39'

I. Sarr

63'

Tom Cleverley

67'

B. Gibson← J. Sørensen

67'

M. Vrančić← K. Dowell

67'

J. Hugill← T. Cantwell

69'

A. Masina← J. Ngakia

74'

S. Perica← A. Gray

74'

W. Hughes← T. Cleverley

78'

Ismaila Sarr

85'

Marc Navarro← Kiko Femenía

85'

N. Chalobah← E. Capoue

87'

Will Hughes

87'

J. Martin← C. Zimmermann

87'

L. Rupp← K. McLean

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordNorwich

Overview

34%Possession66%

7Total Shots16

11Corners4

18Fouls8

Shots

7Total Shots16

1On Target3

3Off Target9

3Blocked4

5Inside Box2

2Outside Box14

Passing

34%Possession66%

304Total Passes594

219Accurate Passes498

72%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls8

4Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2