Leicester 4–2 Watford: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Watford

A. Lookman 68'

J. Vardy 42', 34'

J. Maddison 16'

E. Dennis 61'

J. King 30' (pen)

11/28/2021

Premier League · Round 13King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Leicester52%

×Draw24%

Watford24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.07

Leicester

1.68

Watford

1.07

Leicester creates 57% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 114 away

1.58

creates per match

0.96

1.18

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Leicester

1.58

Watford

0.96

allows per match

Leicester

1.18

Watford

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leicester+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

76%

Leicester or Watford

76%

Draw or Watford

48%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

28%

Watford wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

81%

Leicester 2+ goals

50%

Leicester 3+ goals

24%

Watford 1+ goals

66%

Watford 2+ goals

29%

Watford 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

68%

Watford (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.18 · 173 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.77 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.58 + Watford defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.68

Watford attack 0.96 + Leicester defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Leicester scores more

52%

level

24%

Watford scores more

24%

Leicester at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Maddison

Leicester · M

9.3

Match Events

16'

J. Maddison↳ J. Evans

30'

J. KingPenalty

34'

J. Vardy↳ J. Maddison

42'

J. Vardy↳ J. Maddison

46'

O. Tufan← T. Cleverley

46'

João Pedro← I. Louza

61'

E. Dennis

62'

Emmanuel DennisGoal confirmed

68'

A. Lookman

71'

A. Fletcher← E. Dennis

75'

M. Albrighton← A. Lookman

88'

K. Dewsbury-Hall← J. Maddison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterWatford

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots17

8Corners6

5Fouls20

Shots

18Total Shots17

8On Target5

4Off Target8

6Blocked4

13Inside Box13

5Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

410Total Passes303

285Accurate Passes185

70%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

5Fouls20

5Offsides2