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Watford vs Hull City — Championship 2025

Watford
Watford
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
M. Sissoko 55'
4/8/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 41Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Watford45%
×Draw27%
Hull City29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
1.42
Hull City
1.08

Watford creates 31% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 8 away

creates per match

Watford
1.27
Hull City
1.02

allows per match

Watford
1.15
Hull City
1.56

finishing

Watford-0.05on par
Hull City+0.23scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Watford or draw
71%
Watford or Hull City
73%
Draw or Hull City
55%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
22%
Hull City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
76%
Watford 2+ goals
41%
Watford 3+ goals
17%
Hull City 1+ goals
66%
Hull City 2+ goals
29%
Hull City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
61%
Hull City (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.15 · 36 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.56 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.27 + Hull City defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hull City attack 1.02 + Watford defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Watford scores more
45%
level
27%
Hull City scores more
29%

Watford at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
E. SelvikWatfordWatford · G
7.9

Match Events

39'
Moussa Sissoko
55'
M. Sissoko↳ C. Wiley
61'
Z. Massiah-Edwards← M. Doumbia
63'
K. Joseph← João Pedro
63'
A. Kamara← J. Gelhardt
67'
Edo Kayembe
68'
T. Ince← T. Dele-Bashiru
71'
K. Palmer← M. Crooks
80'
F. Sierralta← R. Vata
80'
J. Morris← J. Abankwah
86'
N. Amrabat← L. Coyle
90+1'
Thomas Ince

Possession

46%Watford

Shots

9Watford

Pass accuracy

49%Watford

Statistics

WatfordHull
Overview
46%Possession54%
9Total Shots16
0.63Expected Goals (xG)0.63
7Corners3
7Fouls6
Shots
9Total Shots16
2On Target5
4Off Target6
3Blocked5
5Inside Box8
4Outside Box8
Passing
46%Possession54%
397Total Passes464
323Accurate Passes385
81%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
-0.13Goals Prevented-0.13
Discipline
7Fouls6
3Yellow Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Watford vs Hull City

Watford beat Hull City 1-0 in Championship on April 8, 2025.

Goals: M. Sissoko (55').

Hull City controlled possession (54%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.