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Hull City vs Watford — Championship 2025

Hull City
Hull City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Watford
Watford
2/3/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 26MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hull City42%
×Draw29%
Watford29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.22
Watford
0.97

Hull City creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.20
Watford
0.94

allows per match

Hull City
1.01
Watford
1.24

finishing

Hull City-0.03on par
Watford+0.01on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
71%
Hull City or Watford
71%
Draw or Watford
58%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
18%
Watford wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
70%
Hull City 2+ goals
34%
Hull City 3+ goals
12%
Watford 1+ goals
62%
Watford 2+ goals
25%
Watford 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
59%
Watford (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.01 · 6 matches

Watford away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.24 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.20 + Watford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Watford attack 0.94 + Hull City defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hull City scores more
42%
level
29%
Watford scores more
29%

Hull City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
C. HughesHull CityHull City · D
7.7

Match Events

34'
Stephen Mfuni
45+1'
Jeremy Ngakia
61'
J. Lundstram← A. Hadziahmetovic
61'
L. Koumas← K. Dowell
66'
K. Keben← S. Mfuni
66'
J. Petris← J. Ngakia
72'
Mamadou Doumbia
73'
Lewie Coyle
75'
R. Giles← J. Gelhardt
75'
L. Millar← M. Jacob
75'
L. Kjerrumgaard← M. Doumbia
75'
K. Baah← G. Chakvetadze
79'
Ryan Giles
82'
John Lundstram
82'
K. Joseph← Y. Hirakawa
87'
Oliver McBurnie
90+4'
T. Ince← O. Maamma

Possession

40%Hull

Shots

6Hull

Pass accuracy

45%Hull

Statistics

HullWatford
Overview
40%Possession60%
6Total Shots16
0.30Expected Goals (xG)0.93
6Corners5
12Fouls9
Shots
6Total Shots16
3On Target2
3Off Target7
0Blocked7
5Inside Box8
1Outside Box8
Passing
40%Possession60%
330Total Passes496
219Accurate Passes395
66%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
0.58Goals Prevented0.58
Discipline
12Fouls9
4Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Championship: Hull City 0–0 Watford

Hull City and Watford drew 0-0 in Championship on February 3, 2026.

Watford controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at MKM Stadium in Hull.