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Watford vs Hull City — Championship 2025

Watford
Watford
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
4/20/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 44Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Watford42%
×Draw26%
Hull City32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
1.39
Hull City
1.18

Watford creates 18% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 9 away

creates per match

Watford
1.26
Hull City
1.17

allows per match

Watford
1.19
Hull City
1.51

finishing

Watford-0.07on par
Hull City-0.06on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Watford or draw
68%
Watford or Hull City
74%
Draw or Hull City
58%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
20%
Hull City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
75%
Watford 2+ goals
40%
Watford 3+ goals
16%
Hull City 1+ goals
69%
Hull City 2+ goals
33%
Hull City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
57%
Hull City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 37 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.51 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.26 + Hull City defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

Hull City attack 1.17 + Watford defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Watford scores more
42%
level
26%
Hull City scores more
32%

Watford at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
D. BachmannWatfordWatford · G
8.6

Match Events

40'
Wesley Hoedt
42'
Jacob Greaves
50'
Ryan Porteous
52'
Ryan Andrews
62'
Matty Jacob
62'
L. Delap← O. Tufan
65'
J. Ngakia← R. Andrews
70'
Tyler Morton
72'
Francisco Sierralta
73'
K. Sema← J. Lewis
73'
M. Rajović← E. Dennis
81'
B. Sharp← A. Ömür
82'
Matheus Martins← V. Bayo
82'
R. Giles← R. Slater
82'
A. Traoré← J. Seri
90+2'
Adama Traoré

Possession

48%Watford

Shots

17Watford

Pass accuracy

49%Watford

Statistics

WatfordHull
Overview
48%Possession52%
17Total Shots13
1.11Expected Goals (xG)2.36
1Corners5
19Fouls13
Shots
17Total Shots13
2On Target6
12Off Target2
3Blocked5
11Inside Box9
6Outside Box4
Passing
48%Possession52%
387Total Passes441
321Accurate Passes376
83%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
19Fouls13
4Yellow Cards4
2Offsides4

Match Recap: Watford vs Hull City

Watford and Hull City drew 0-0 in Championship on April 20, 2024.

Hull City controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 17.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.