Hull City 1–1 Watford: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Watford

C. Bedia 82'

R. Vata 88'

12/11/2024

Championship · Round 20The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Hull City41%

×Draw28%

Watford31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.06

Hull City

1.28

Watford

1.06

Hull City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 40 away

1.24

creates per match

1.10

1.02

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Hull City

1.24

Watford

1.10

allows per match

Hull City

1.02

Watford

1.32

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Hull City-0.10scores less

Watford+0.05on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

69%

Hull City or Watford

72%

Draw or Watford

59%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

19%

Watford wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

72%

Hull City 2+ goals

37%

Hull City 3+ goals

14%

Watford 1+ goals

65%

Watford 2+ goals

29%

Watford 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

57%

Watford (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.02 · 7 matches

Watford away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.24 + Watford defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.28

Watford attack 1.10 + Hull City defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hull City scores more

41%

level

28%

Watford scores more

31%

Hull City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

R. Longman

Hull City · M

7.7

Match Events

36'

Kasey Palmer

36'

Imrân Louza

43'

Jeremy Ngakia

61'

K. Baah← T. Ince

61'

R. Andrews← J. Ngakia

67'

M. Mehlem← S. Alzate

67'

M. Burstow← R. Longman

72'

F. Ebosele← Y. Larouci

72'

R. Vata← G. Chakvetadze

73'

C. Bedia← João Pedro

77'

M. Sissoko← E. Kayembe

78'

80'

82'

85'

88'

R. Vata↳ K. Baah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullWatford

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots12

1.51Expected Goals (xG)1.11

6Corners2

15Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots12

4On Target2

4Off Target6

5Blocked4

9Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

352Total Passes497

281Accurate Passes422

80%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

0.01Goals Prevented0.01

Discipline

15Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2