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Watford vs Hull City — Championship 2018

Watford
Watford
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
12/11/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 22Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 56+ matches

Watford43%
×Draw26%
Hull City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
1.41
Hull City
1.14

Watford creates 24% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 56 away

creates per match

Watford
1.29
Hull City
1.11

allows per match

Watford
1.16
Hull City
1.52

finishing

Watford-0.02on par
Hull City+0.05on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Watford or draw
70%
Watford or Hull City
74%
Draw or Hull City
57%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
21%
Hull City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
76%
Watford 2+ goals
41%
Watford 3+ goals
17%
Hull City 1+ goals
68%
Hull City 2+ goals
32%
Hull City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
59%
Hull City (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 62 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.52 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.29 + Hull City defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Hull City attack 1.11 + Watford defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Watford scores more
43%
level
26%
Hull City scores more
30%

Watford at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
C. KabaseleWatfordWatford · D
7.9

Match Events

9'
G. Docherty← D. Pelkas
15'
J. Hungbo← H. Choudhury
19'
Ryan Woods
37'
Jacob Greaves
44'
Cyrus Christie
50'
Alfie Jones
53'
O. Tufan← G. Docherty
71'
R. Manaj← J. Hungbo
74'
Tobias Figueiredo← R. Woods
74'
L. Coyle← T. Smith
90+2'
V. Bayo← R. Manaj

Possession

52%Watford

Shots

12Watford

Pass accuracy

51%Watford

Statistics

WatfordHull
Overview
52%Possession48%
12Total Shots9
7Corners5
7Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots9
3On Target3
4Off Target4
5Blocked2
10Inside Box6
2Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
481Total Passes472
410Accurate Passes382
85%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls13
0Yellow Cards4
1Offsides0

Championship: Watford 0–0 Hull City

Watford and Hull City drew 0-0 in Championship on December 11, 2022.

Watford controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.