Watford 1–0 Hull City: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hull City

M. Dawson 82' (OG)

10/29/2016

Premier League · Round 10Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Watford48%

×Draw25%

Hull City27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.08

Watford

1.54

Hull City

1.08

Watford creates 43% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 39 away

1.21

creates per match

0.54

1.61

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Watford

1.21

Hull City

0.54

allows per match

Watford

1.61

Hull City

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Watford or draw

73%

Watford or Hull City

75%

Draw or Hull City

52%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

24%

Hull City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

79%

Watford 2+ goals

45%

Watford 3+ goals

20%

Hull City 1+ goals

66%

Hull City 2+ goals

29%

Hull City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

64%

Hull City (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Hull City away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.87 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Hull City defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hull City attack 0.54 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Watford scores more

48%

level

25%

Hull City scores more

27%

Watford at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

N. Amrabat

Watford · M

8.0

Match Events

53'

Valon Behrami

57'

Ryan Mason

58'

Sam Clucas

72'

D. Janmaat← Y. Kaboul

78'

D. Meyler← W. Keane

82'

M. DawsonOwn goal

85'

C. Zúñiga← N. Amrabat

87'

C. Kabasele← S. Prödl

90'

J. Bowen← M. Henriksen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordHull

Overview

54%Possession46%

23Total Shots8

7Corners2

13Fouls8

Shots

23Total Shots8

0On Target2

16Off Target4

7Blocked2

12Inside Box3

12Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

476Total Passes399

374Accurate Passes290

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2