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Watford vs Blackburn — Championship 2025

Watford
Watford
Preview
19:45
Blackburn
Blackburn
11/25/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17Vicarage Road
Big match
42%
Watford
model favours
42%29%30%

Watford score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Watford42%
×Draw29%
Blackburn30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
1.23
Blackburn
0.99

Watford creates 24% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 31 away

creates per match

Watford
1.26
Blackburn
0.94

allows per match

Watford
1.05
Blackburn
1.19

finishing

Watford+0.00on par
Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Watford or draw
70%
Watford or Blackburn
71%
Draw or Blackburn
58%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
18%
Blackburn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
71%
Watford 2+ goals
35%
Watford 3+ goals
13%
Blackburn 1+ goals
63%
Blackburn 2+ goals
26%
Blackburn 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
58%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

Blackburn away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.26 + Blackburn defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Blackburn attack 0.94 + Watford defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Watford scores more
42%
level
29%
Blackburn scores more
30%

Watford at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Watford have scored in 10 games running
  • Both teams score in 80% of Watford’s matches
  • Watford outscore their xG (1.4 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Watford
DLLLL
Blackburn
DLWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Watford host Blackburn

November 25, 2026: Watford take on Blackburn in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Watford host Blackburn at Vicarage Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.