Watford 0–1 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Blackburn

R. Morishita 47'

9/13/2025

Championship · Round 5Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Watford36%

×Draw27%

Blackburn38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.28

Watford

1.24

Blackburn

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 7 away

1.38

creates per match

1.39

1.18

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Watford

1.38

Blackburn

1.39

allows per match

Watford

1.18

Blackburn

1.10

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Watford-0.11scores less

Blackburn-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Watford or draw

62%

Watford or Blackburn

73%

Draw or Blackburn

64%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

15%

Blackburn wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

35%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Blackburn 1+ goals

72%

Blackburn 2+ goals

37%

Blackburn 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

49%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.18 · 30 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.10 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.38 + Blackburn defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Blackburn attack 1.39 + Watford defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Watford scores more

36%

level

27%

Blackburn scores more

38%

Blackburn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

R. Alebiosu

Blackburn · D

7.6

Match Events

47'

R. Morishita↳ Y. Ohashi

54'

N. Irankunda← M. Doumbia

55'

E. Kayembe← R. Vata

58'

Todd Cantwell

67'

Matthew Pollock

70'

L. Miller← Y. Ribeiro

70'

A. Gudjohnsen← Y. Ohashi

70'

A. Kargbo← R. Morishita

78'

T. Gardner-Hickman← S. Tronstad

88'

Ryan Hedges

90+1'

H. Pickering← R. Hedges

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordBlackburn

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots14

0.75Expected Goals (xG)1.45

5Corners7

12Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots14

1On Target5

7Off Target4

6Blocked5

8Inside Box9

6Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

347Total Passes333

273Accurate Passes237

79%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

0.02Goals Prevented0.02

Discipline

12Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0