Watford 1–0 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Blackburn

E. Kayembe 71' (pen)

10/26/2024

Championship · Round 12Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Watford37%

×Draw28%

Blackburn35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.19

Watford

1.23

Blackburn

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 5 away

1.40

creates per match

1.20

1.17

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Watford

1.40

Blackburn

1.20

allows per match

Watford

1.17

Blackburn

1.07

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

Watford-0.08on par

Blackburn-0.40scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Watford or draw

65%

Watford or Blackburn

72%

Draw or Blackburn

63%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

16%

Blackburn wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

35%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Blackburn 1+ goals

70%

Blackburn 2+ goals

33%

Blackburn 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

51%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.17 · 28 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.40 + Blackburn defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Blackburn attack 1.20 + Watford defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Watford scores more

37%

level

28%

Blackburn scores more

35%

Watford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

R. Porteous

Watford · D

7.3

Match Events

36'

49'

51'

55'

56'

V. Bayo← T. Ince

59'

66'

66'

68'

69'

71'

E. KayembePenalty

77'

A. Sigurðsson← A. Weimann

78'

J. Buckley← L. Travis

78'

J. Rankin-Costello← R. Hedges

84'

R. Andrews← K. Baah

84'

T. Dolan← S. Tronstad

88'

Festy Ebosele

90+5'

Dominic Hyam

90'

Callum Brittain

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordBlackburn

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots12

2.03Expected Goals (xG)1.44

6Corners3

9Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots12

1On Target2

6Off Target9

3Blocked1

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

353Total Passes411

287Accurate Passes333

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

-0.05Goals Prevented-0.05

Discipline

9Fouls17

5Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Watford vs Blackburn

Watford beat Blackburn 1-0 in Championship on October 26, 2024.

Goals: E. Kayembe (71' pen).

Blackburn controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Blackburn — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Watford vs Blackburn