Blackburn 1–2 Watford: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

A. Wharton 3'

R. Healey 87'

M. Rajović 83'

12/23/2023

Championship · Round 23Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Blackburn43%

×Draw28%

Watford29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.02

Blackburn

1.29

Watford

1.02

Blackburn creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 29 away

1.29

creates per match

1.06

0.98

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Blackburn

1.29

Watford

1.06

allows per match

Blackburn

0.98

Watford

1.28

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.29scores less

Watford+0.01on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

71%

Blackburn or Watford

72%

Draw or Watford

57%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

19%

Watford wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

72%

Blackburn 2+ goals

37%

Blackburn 3+ goals

14%

Watford 1+ goals

64%

Watford 2+ goals

27%

Watford 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

59%

Watford (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.98 · 9 matches

Watford away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.29 + Watford defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Watford attack 1.06 + Blackburn defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Blackburn scores more

43%

level

28%

Watford scores more

29%

Blackburn at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

A. Wharton

Blackburn · M

8.3

Match Events

3'

A. Wharton↳ H. Carter

36'

Jake Garrett

46'

R. Andrews← T. Dele-Bashiru

46'

Y. Asprilla← Matheus Martins

61'

H. Leonard← N. Ennis

65'

Wesley Hoedt

67'

J. Hill← D. Hyam

72'

G. Chakvetadze← J. Livermore

72'

81'

83'

83'

87'

87'

89'

90'

D. Markanday← A. Moran

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnWatford

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots18

0.82Expected Goals (xG)2.07

7Corners5

12Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots18

5On Target6

5Off Target6

1Blocked6

6Inside Box10

5Outside Box8

Passing

56%Possession44%

512Total Passes387

415Accurate Passes307

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2

Championship: Blackburn 1–2 Watford

Watford beat Blackburn 2-1 in Championship on December 23, 2023.

Goals: A. Wharton (3'), M. Rajović (83'), R. Healey (87').

Blackburn controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 18.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn, Lancashire.

Blackburn vs Watford — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Blackburn 1–2 Watford