Blackburn 2–1 Watford: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Watford

T. Dolan 74'

T. Cantwell 59'

M. Pollock 47'

4/26/2025

Championship · Round 45Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Blackburn46%

×Draw28%

Watford26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.96

Blackburn

1.36

Watford

0.96

Blackburn creates 42% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 27 away

1.41

creates per match

1.03

0.89

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Blackburn

1.41

Watford

1.03

allows per match

Blackburn

0.89

Watford

1.32

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.41scores less

Watford+0.04on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

74%

Blackburn or Watford

72%

Draw or Watford

54%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

22%

Watford wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

74%

Blackburn 2+ goals

39%

Blackburn 3+ goals

16%

Watford 1+ goals

62%

Watford 2+ goals

25%

Watford 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

63%

Watford (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.89 · 7 matches

Watford away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.32 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.41 + Watford defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Watford attack 1.03 + Blackburn defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Blackburn scores more

46%

level

28%

Watford scores more

26%

Blackburn at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

T. Cantwell

Blackburn · M

9.0

Match Events

16'

24'

34'

44'

45+1'

47'

55'

F. Sierralta← J. Morris

59'

T. Cantwell↳ Y. Ohashi

65'

Mamadou Doumbia

71'

P. Dwomoh← I. Louza

74'

T. Dolan↳ T. Cantwell

78'

A. Forshaw← T. Cantwell

78'

D. Sanderson← R. Hedges

82'

Z. Massiah-Edwards← J. Abankwah

82'

V. Bayo← M. Doumbia

82'

R. Andrews← J. Ngakia

85'

86'

86'

90+8'

90+6'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnWatford

Overview

55%Possession45%

10Total Shots9

1.02Expected Goals (xG)0.35

4Corners6

12Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots9

4On Target2

5Off Target4

1Blocked3

7Inside Box5

3Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

413Total Passes341

305Accurate Passes247

74%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.69Goals Prevented-0.69

Discipline

12Fouls14

5Yellow Cards5

2Offsides4