Watford 0–1 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Blackburn

R. Hedges 72'

8/27/2023

Championship · Round 4Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 57+ matches

Watford43%

×Draw27%

Blackburn30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.09

Watford

1.35

Blackburn

1.09

Watford creates 24% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 57 away

1.32

creates per match

1.01

1.18

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Watford

1.32

Blackburn

1.01

allows per match

Watford

1.18

Blackburn

1.38

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Watford-0.05on par

Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Watford or draw

70%

Watford or Blackburn

73%

Draw or Blackburn

57%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

20%

Blackburn wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

74%

Watford 2+ goals

39%

Watford 3+ goals

15%

Blackburn 1+ goals

66%

Blackburn 2+ goals

30%

Blackburn 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

59%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.32 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Watford defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Watford scores more

43%

level

27%

Blackburn scores more

30%

Watford at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Y. Asprilla

Watford · F

8.2

Match Events

24'

Wesley Hoedt

46'

I. Louza← I. Koné

55'

G. Chakvetadze← T. Dele-Bashiru

56'

M. Rajović← V. Bayo

57'

A. Moran← T. Dolan

57'

S. Gallagher← H. Leonard

63'

69'

69'

72'

73'

77'

77'

S. Wharton← J. Rankin-Costello

80'

J. Ngakia← R. Andrews

90+6'

J. Garrett← L. Travis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordBlackburn

Overview

65%Possession35%

24Total Shots5

1.39Expected Goals (xG)0.45

8Corners4

8Fouls5

Shots

24Total Shots5

4On Target3

10Off Target1

10Blocked1

11Inside Box3

13Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

618Total Passes336

549Accurate Passes254

89%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls5

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2