Watford 1–1 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Blackburn

W. Hoedt 74'

B. Dack 24'

2/11/2023

Championship · Round 31Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 56+ matches

Watford42%

×Draw27%

Blackburn31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.11

Watford

1.34

Blackburn

1.11

Watford creates 21% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 56 away

1.31

creates per match

1.02

1.20

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Watford

1.31

Blackburn

1.02

allows per match

Watford

1.20

Blackburn

1.38

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Watford-0.02on par

Blackburn+0.05on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Watford or draw

69%

Watford or Blackburn

73%

Draw or Blackburn

58%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

19%

Blackburn wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

74%

Watford 2+ goals

39%

Watford 3+ goals

15%

Blackburn 1+ goals

67%

Blackburn 2+ goals

30%

Blackburn 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

58%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 59 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.31 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Blackburn attack 1.02 + Watford defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Watford scores more

42%

level

27%

Blackburn scores more

31%

Watford at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

João Pedro

Watford · F

7.7

Match Events

24'

B. Dack

31'

Sorba Thomas

36'

Hamza Choudhury

46'

K. Davis← Henrique Araújo

59'

Joe Rankin-Costello

60'

K. Sema← Matheus Martins

60'

J. Buckley← T. Morton

60'

S. Gallagher← S. Thomas

71'

T. Cleverley← H. Choudhury

74'

W. Hoedt

76'

R. Hedges← B. Dack

76'

S. Szmodics← B. Brereton

79'

I. Louza← I. Koné

79'

B. Assombalonga← João Pedro

86'

C. Brittain← J. Rankin-Costello

90+4'

Hassane Kamara

90+6'

Sam Gallagher

90'

John Buckley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordBlackburn

Overview

61%Possession39%

15Total Shots7

6Corners2

13Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots7

6On Target4

5Off Target3

4Blocked0

8Inside Box5

7Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

515Total Passes334

407Accurate Passes223

79%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Watford vs Blackburn

Watford and Blackburn drew 1-1 in Championship on February 11, 2023.

Goals: B. Dack (24'), W. Hoedt (74').

Watford controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Vicarage Road in Watford.

Watford vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Watford vs Blackburn