Warta Poznań vs Olimpia Grudziądz — II Liga - East 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Warta Poznań48%
Olimpia Grudziądz28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Warta Poznań creates 39% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 69 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Warta Poznań ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches
Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Warta Poznań attack 1.71 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.65
Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.26 + Warta Poznań defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Warta Poznań at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Warta Poznań substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Unia SkierniewiceWarta PoznańOlimpia Grudziądz
Podbeskidzie
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Podhale Nowy Targ
Śląsk Wrocław II
Chojniczanka Chojnice
Hutnik Kraków
Resovia Rzeszów
Świt Skolwin
Stal Stalowa Wola
Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Sokół Kleczew
Kalisz
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
ŁKS Łódź II
Jastrzębie
Górnik Polkowice
KSZO 1929
Łomża
LuzinoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Warta Poznań host Olimpia Grudziądz on Saturday, 11 October 2025 at 10:00. The match is part of the II Liga - East 2026/2027 season.
II Liga - East: Warta Poznań 3–2 Olimpia Grudziądz
Warta Poznań beat Olimpia Grudziądz 3-2 in II Liga - East on October 11, 2025.
Goals: K. Rychert (38'), O. Sewerzynski (42'), M. Mas (50'), S. Zalewski (61'), M. Stanek (83').
The match was played at Stadion przy Drodze Dębińskiej in Poznań.