Olimpia Grudziądz 2–1 Warta Poznań: Result & Stats

Olimpia Grudziądz

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Warta Poznań

S. Kamiński 48'

Omran Haydary 43'

R. Janicki 53'

8/31/2019

I Liga · Round 7Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Olimpia Grudziądz43%

×Draw25%

Warta Poznań32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia GrudziądzExpected goals in this matchWarta Poznań

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.28

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.52

Warta Poznań

1.28

Olimpia Grudziądz creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 48 away

1.57

creates per match

0.92

1.64

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.57

Warta Poznań

0.92

allows per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.64

Warta Poznań

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Grudziądz ↓

Warta Poznań →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Olimpia Grudziądz or draw

68%

Olimpia Grudziądz or Warta Poznań

75%

Draw or Warta Poznań

57%

Winning margin

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

21%

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

78%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

45%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

20%

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

72%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

37%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

57%

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Grudziądz at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.57 + Warta Poznań defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Warta Poznań attack 0.92 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

43%

level

25%

Warta Poznań scores more

32%

Olimpia Grudziądz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

43'

48'

53'

60'

M. Twarowski← S. Kamiński

61'

M. Twarowski

71'

K. Gardzielewicz← W. Długosz

72'

Ł. Bogusławski← D. Frelek

80'

D. Ciechanowski

80'

K. Kiklaisz← M. Grobelny

88'

S. Napołow← J. Kuzdra

89'

T. Boczek

89'

P. Janczukowicz← João Criciuma

Olimpia

Warta

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: R. Wojcik

60'▲M. Twarowski←▼S. Kamiński

72'▲Ł. Bogusławski←▼D. Frelek

89'▲P. Janczukowicz←▼João Criciuma

Olimpia Grudziądz substitutes

TwarowskiBogusławskiJanczukowicz

Manager: P. Tworek

71'▲K. Gardzielewicz←▼W. Długosz

80'▲K. Kiklaisz←▼M. Grobelny

88'▲S. Napołow←▼J. Kuzdra

Warta Poznań substitutes

GardzielewiczKiklaiszNapołow