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Olimpia Grudziądz vs Warta Poznań — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Olimpia Grudziądz
Olimpia Grudziądz
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Warta Poznań
Warta Poznań
1/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Olimpia Grudziądz46%
×Draw22%
Warta Poznań33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Grudziądz
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.67

Olimpia Grudziądz creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Olimpia Grudziądz
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.44

allows per match

Olimpia Grudziądz
1.89
Warta Poznań
2.00

finishing

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par
Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Grudziądz ↓

Warta Poznań →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Olimpia Grudziądz or draw
67%
Olimpia Grudziądz or Warta Poznań
78%
Draw or Warta Poznań
54%

Winning margin

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+
26%
Warta Poznań wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals
86%
Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals
59%
Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals
32%
Warta Poznań 1+ goals
81%
Warta Poznań 2+ goals
50%
Warta Poznań 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)
58%
Warta Poznań (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Grudziądz at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 2.00 + Warta Poznań defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Warta Poznań attack 1.44 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more
46%
level
22%
Warta Poznań scores more
33%

Olimpia Grudziądz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Olimpia
Warta
Artur Kosznicki
Manager: Artur Kosznicki
Maciej Tokarczyk
Manager: Maciej Tokarczyk

Match Recap: Olimpia Grudziądz vs Warta Poznań

Warta Poznań beat Olimpia Grudziądz 5-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 24, 2026.