Olimpia Grudziądz 2–4 Warta Poznań: Result & Stats

Olimpia Grudziądz

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Warta Poznań

B. Czajka 55'

D. Frelek 47'

F. Walus 90'

M. Stanek 73'

M. Stefaniak 54' (pen)

P. Kusztal 20'

4/26/2026

II Liga - East · Round 29Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Olimpia Grudziądz32%

×Draw25%

Warta Poznań43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia GrudziądzExpected goals in this matchWarta Poznań

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.50

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.25

Warta Poznań

1.50

Warta Poznań creates 20% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 17 away

1.45

creates per match

1.65

1.34

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.45

Warta Poznań

1.65

allows per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.34

Warta Poznań

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Grudziądz ↓

Warta Poznań →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Olimpia Grudziądz or draw

57%

Olimpia Grudziądz or Warta Poznań

75%

Draw or Warta Poznań

68%

Winning margin

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

13%

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

71%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

36%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

13%

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

78%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

44%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

42%

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Grudziądz at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 71 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.45 + Warta Poznań defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Warta Poznań attack 1.65 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

32%

level

25%

Warta Poznań scores more

43%

Warta Poznań at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

P. Kusztal

47'

D. Frelek

54'

M. StefaniakPenalty

55'

58'

59'

66'

73'

M. Stanek↳ M. Stefaniak

74'

K. Fietz← K. Cichon

74'

M. Pawlowski← M. Mas

77'

B. Brzek← I. Tsyupa

77'

F. Koperski← L. Moneta

78'

M. Smoczynski← M. Stanek

81'

P. Stolc

90+1'

K. Dziedzic← S. Steblecki

90+1'

M. Zylla← K. Szymanek

90'

F. Walus↳ S. Steblecki

Olimpia

Warta

42

Przybylak

3

Michalski

8

Kumoch

9

⚽

▼

Stanek

17

⚽A

Stefaniak

19

▼

Szymanek

23

⚽

▼

29

24

35

71

A

▼

71

32

25

5

⚽

Czajka

93

▼

Tsyupa

44

⚽

Frelek

10

▼

Cichon

26

Sewerzyns

18

Jarzec

9

▼

Mas

13

A

▼

Moneta

Manager: Artur Kosznicki

74'▲K. Fietz←▼K. Cichon

74'▲M. Pawlowski←▼M. Mas

77'▲B. Brzek←▼I. Tsyupa

77'▲F. Koperski←▼L. Moneta

Olimpia Grudziądz substitutes

80Olszak3Klimczak77Kobryn7Kaczmarek42Kardas16Fietz69Pawlowski17SiemaszkoBrzek72Koperski

Manager: Maciej Tokarczyk

66'▲F. Walus←▼P. Kusztal

78'▲M. Smoczynski←▼M. Stanek

90+1'▲K. Dziedzic←▼S. Steblecki

90+1'▲M. Zylla←▼K. Szymanek

Warta Poznań substitutes

1Kosiorek7Walus11Tonder13Niedzielski16Kornobis20Dziedzic21Zylla99Smoczynski