Walsall 1–1 Stevenage: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stevenage

D. Johnson 13'

0 D. Rose 90+10'

8/13/2022

League Two · Round 3Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Walsall43%

×Draw28%

Stevenage29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.00

Walsall

1.27

Stevenage

1.00

Walsall creates 27% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 100 away

1.29

creates per match

0.80

1.20

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Walsall

1.29

Stevenage

0.80

allows per match

Walsall

1.20

Stevenage

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

71%

Walsall or Stevenage

72%

Draw or Stevenage

57%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

19%

Stevenage wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

72%

Walsall 2+ goals

36%

Walsall 3+ goals

14%

Stevenage 1+ goals

63%

Stevenage 2+ goals

26%

Stevenage 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

59%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Walsall scores more

43%

level

28%

Stevenage scores more

29%

Walsall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

L. Kinsella

Walsall · M

7.6

Match Events

13'

D. Johnson↳ A. Williams

46'

D. Campbell← M. Bostwick

46'

M. Clark← S. Earley

61'

J. Roberts← J. Taylor

62'

D. Rose← L. Norris

67'

T. Knowles← I. Hutchinson

70'

Tom Knowles

71'

A. Read← C. Piergianni

77'

J. Earing← D. Johnson

90+2'

90+11'

90+5'

90+10'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallStevenage

Overview

42%Possession58%

6Total Shots14

3Corners3

13Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots14

1On Target4

5Off Target3

0Blocked7

5Inside Box8

1Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

260Total Passes356

139Accurate Passes220

53%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2