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Stevenage vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Walsall
Walsall
J. Taylor 90+4'
C. Lines 8'
R. Menayese 1' (OG)
B. Kiernan 70'
1/8/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 26The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage42%
×Draw28%
Walsall31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.31
Walsall
1.08

Stevenage creates 21% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 156 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.31
Walsall
1.13

allows per match

Stevenage
1.04
Walsall
1.31

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
69%
Stevenage or Walsall
72%
Draw or Walsall
58%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
19%
Walsall wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
73%
Stevenage 2+ goals
38%
Stevenage 3+ goals
14%
Walsall 1+ goals
66%
Walsall 2+ goals
29%
Walsall 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
58%
Walsall (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Walsall attack 1.13 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stevenage scores more
42%
level
28%
Walsall scores more
31%

Stevenage at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
J. TaylorStevenageStevenage · F
8.2

Match Events

1'
R. MenayeseOwn goal
8'
C. Lines↳ J. Reeves
27'
Rollin Menayese
35'
Scott Cuthbert
41'
E. Upson← M. Bostwick
61'
K. Phillips← G. Miller
68'
C. Carter← Bruno Andrade
70'
B. Kiernan↳ J. Earing
74'
Luke Prosser
76'
Conor Wilkinson
81'
T. Shade← B. Kiernan
82'
T. Vancooten← L. Norris
90+4'
J. Taylor

Possession

39%Stevenage

Shots

8Stevenage

Pass accuracy

42%Stevenage

Statistics

StevenageWalsall
Overview
39%Possession61%
8Total Shots12
5Corners5
16Fouls18
Shots
8Total Shots12
5On Target2
2Off Target5
1Blocked5
6Inside Box8
2Outside Box4
Passing
39%Possession61%
279Total Passes435
140Accurate Passes303
50%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls18
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Walsall

Stevenage beat Walsall 3-1 in League Two on January 8, 2022.

Goals: R. Menayese (1' o.g.), C. Lines (8'), B. Kiernan (70'), J. Taylor (90+4').

Walsall controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.