Stevenage 3–1 Walsall: Result & Stats | League Two

Stevenage

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Walsall

J. March 36', 7'

L. Norris 14'

E. Monthe 29'

3/11/2023

League Two · Round 36The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage42%

×Draw28%

Walsall31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.08

Stevenage

1.31

Walsall

1.08

Stevenage creates 21% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 156 away

1.31

creates per match

1.13

1.04

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Stevenage

1.31

Walsall

1.13

allows per match

Stevenage

1.04

Walsall

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par

Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

69%

Stevenage or Walsall

72%

Draw or Walsall

58%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

19%

Walsall wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

73%

Stevenage 2+ goals

38%

Stevenage 3+ goals

14%

Walsall 1+ goals

66%

Walsall 2+ goals

29%

Walsall 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

58%

Walsall (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Walsall attack 1.13 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stevenage scores more

42%

level

28%

Walsall scores more

31%

Stevenage at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

J. March

Stevenage · F

8.2

Match Events

7'

14'

29'

35'

36'

46'

L. Kinsella← J. Maddox

46'

J. Low← L. Gordon

46'

J. Riley← I. Hutchinson

46'

C. Wilkinson← A. Williams

62'

Carl Piergianni

66'

Jake Reeves

69'

Alex Gilbey

81'

M. Stevens← B. Comley

88'

D. Horgan← J. Taylor

90+2'

J. Reid← J. March

90+5'

D. Rose← L. Norris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenageWalsall

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots12

6Corners4

13Fouls19

Shots

17Total Shots12

7On Target3

7Off Target5

3Blocked4

13Inside Box10

4Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

281Total Passes248

178Accurate Passes135

63%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls19

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0

League Two: Stevenage 3–1 Walsall

Stevenage beat Walsall 3-1 in League Two on March 11, 2023.

Goals: J. March (7', 36'), L. Norris (14'), E. Monthe (29').

Stevenage controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.

Stevenage vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Stevenage 3–1 Walsall