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Walsall vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stevenage
Stevenage
C. Wilkinson 5'
8/28/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 5Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Walsall43%
×Draw28%
Stevenage29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.27
Stevenage
1.00

Walsall creates 27% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 100 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.29
Stevenage
0.80

allows per match

Walsall
1.20
Stevenage
1.24

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
71%
Walsall or Stevenage
72%
Draw or Stevenage
57%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
19%
Stevenage wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
72%
Walsall 2+ goals
36%
Walsall 3+ goals
14%
Stevenage 1+ goals
63%
Stevenage 2+ goals
26%
Stevenage 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
59%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Walsall scores more
43%
level
28%
Stevenage scores more
29%

Walsall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
J. EaringWalsallWalsall · M
7.5

Match Events

5'
C. Wilkinson
46'
C. Lines← J. Smith
63'
Joss Labadie
77'
Bruno Andrade← A. Read
77'
J. Daly← J. Reid
78'
E. Osadebe← K. Phillips
84'
Terence Vancooten
87'
A. Taylor← J. Earing

Possession

38%Walsall

Shots

7Walsall

Pass accuracy

44%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallStevenage
Overview
38%Possession62%
7Total Shots10
4Corners6
17Fouls11
Shots
7Total Shots10
1On Target1
4Off Target6
2Blocked3
5Inside Box4
2Outside Box6
Passing
38%Possession62%
299Total Passes483
172Accurate Passes354
58%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
17Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

League Two: Walsall 1–0 Stevenage

Walsall beat Stevenage 1-0 in League Two on August 28, 2021.

Goals: C. Wilkinson (5').

Stevenage controlled possession (62%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.