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Walsall vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
Preview
18:45
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
4/13/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 41Bescot Stadium
Big match
37%
Fleetwood Town
model favours
36%27%37%
1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Walsall36%
×Draw27%
Fleetwood Town37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.23
Fleetwood Town
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.02
Fleetwood Town
1.20

allows per match

Walsall
1.34
Fleetwood Town
1.43

finishing

Walsall-0.02on par
Fleetwood Town-0.03on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
63%
Walsall or Fleetwood Town
73%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
64%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
15%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
71%
Walsall 2+ goals
35%
Walsall 3+ goals
13%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
72%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
36%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
49%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.43 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.02 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fleetwood Town attack 1.20 + Walsall defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Walsall scores more
36%
level
27%
Fleetwood Town scores more
37%

Fleetwood Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Walsall play Direct / counter-attacking, Fleetwood Town Defensively solid

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
Fleetwood Town
Defensively solid
43%PossessionBiggest gap49%
64%Pass accuracy68%
12.0Shots12.2
1.43xG1.39
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WalsallFleetwood Town

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1
Walsall
2
Draws
3
Fleetwood Town
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 33%
0–11–10–22–62–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Walsall
LDLLW
Town
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Walsall host Fleetwood Town

April 13, 2027: Walsall take on Fleetwood Town in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Walsall host Fleetwood Town at Bescot Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.