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Walsall vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
2 – 6
HT: 2 – 1
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
J. Matt 45'
H. Williams 14'
M. Helm 90+4'
M. Virtue-Thick 85'
K. Hughes 67', 57'
R. Coughlan 51' (pen), 25'
10/1/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Walsall36%
×Draw27%
Fleetwood Town37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.02
Fleetwood Town
1.23

allows per match

Walsall
1.34
Fleetwood Town
1.50

finishing

Walsall-0.02on par
Fleetwood Town-0.05on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
63%
Walsall or Fleetwood Town
73%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
64%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
16%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
72%
Walsall 2+ goals
36%
Walsall 3+ goals
13%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
72%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
37%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
49%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.50 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.02 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.26

Fleetwood Town attack 1.23 + Walsall defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Walsall scores more
36%
level
27%
Fleetwood Town scores more
37%

Fleetwood Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
R. CoughlanFleetwood TownFleetwood Town · F
8.9

Match Events

13'
R. Bennett← B. Wiredu
14'
H. Williams↳ D. Okagbue
25'
R. Coughlan↳ R. Graydon
45+2'
Rhys Bennett
45'
J. Matt↳ N. Lowe
51'
R. CoughlanPenalty
56'
J. Earing← C. Lakin
56'
A. Adomah← J. Matt
57'
K. Hughes
67'
K. Hughes↳ R. Bennett
72'
R. Cleary← C. Barrett
77'
D. Johnson← J. Jellis
85'
K. Harratt← R. Coughlan
85'
M. Helm← D. Mayor
85'
M. Virtue-Thick↳ K. Harratt
90+6'
David Harrington
90+4'
M. Helm↳ R. Graydon

Possession

47%Walsall

Shots

17Walsall

Pass accuracy

49%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallFleetwood
Overview
47%Possession53%
17Total Shots12
5Corners5
10Fouls5
Shots
17Total Shots12
3On Target7
9Off Target2
5Blocked3
11Inside Box8
6Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
394Total Passes446
297Accurate Passes347
75%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls5
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

League Two: Walsall 2–6 Fleetwood Town

Fleetwood Town beat Walsall 6-2 in League Two on October 1, 2024.

Goals: H. Williams (14'), R. Coughlan (25', 51' pen), J. Matt (45'), K. Hughes (57', 67'), M. Virtue-Thick (85'), M. Helm (90+4').

Fleetwood Town controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.