Fleetwood Town 1–1 Walsall: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Walsall

R. Graydon 16'

D. Kanu 25'

9/13/2025

League Two · Round 8Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Fleetwood Town39%

×Draw26%

Walsall36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.34

Fleetwood Town

1.41

Walsall

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.61

creates per match

1.78

0.91

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.61

Walsall

1.78

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

0.91

Walsall

1.20

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.43scores less

Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

64%

Fleetwood Town or Walsall

74%

Draw or Walsall

61%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

18%

Walsall wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

76%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

41%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

17%

Walsall 1+ goals

74%

Walsall 2+ goals

39%

Walsall 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

52%

Walsall (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.61 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Walsall attack 1.78 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

39%

level

26%

Walsall scores more

36%

Fleetwood Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Davies

Fleetwood Town · M

7.7

Match Events

16'

R. Graydon↳ J. Davies

25'

D. Kanu↳ R. Finnigan

37'

James Bolton

56'

Vincent Harper

66'

B. Comley← L. Warrington

66'

R. Richards← R. Finnigan

70'

E. Ennis← S. Rooney

78'

W. Davies← J. Norwood

78'

C. Evans← R. Graydon

78'

H. Neal← M. Helm

78'

J. Matt← A. Pressley

78'

A. Adomah← D. Kanu

90+2'

J. Okeke← C. Clarke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodWalsall

Overview

62%Possession38%

9Total Shots13

6Corners6

10Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots13

2On Target2

4Off Target6

3Blocked5

5Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

440Total Passes254

338Accurate Passes153

77%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Fleetwood Town vs Walsall

Fleetwood Town and Walsall drew 1-1 in League Two on September 13, 2025.

Goals: R. Graydon (16'), D. Kanu (25').

Fleetwood Town controlled possession (62%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Highbury Stadium in Fleetwood.

Fleetwood Town vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fleetwood Town vs Walsall