Walsall 0–1 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Walsall

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fleetwood Town

M. Helm 15'

3/3/2026

League Two · Round 25Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Walsall36%

×Draw27%

Fleetwood Town37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.29

Walsall

1.26

Fleetwood Town

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.02

creates per match

1.23

1.34

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Walsall

1.02

Fleetwood Town

1.23

allows per match

Walsall

1.34

Fleetwood Town

1.50

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Walsall-0.02on par

Fleetwood Town-0.05on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

63%

Walsall or Fleetwood Town

73%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

64%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

16%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

72%

Walsall 2+ goals

36%

Walsall 3+ goals

13%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

72%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

37%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

49%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.50 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.02 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.26

Fleetwood Town attack 1.23 + Walsall defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Walsall scores more

36%

level

27%

Fleetwood Town scores more

37%

Fleetwood Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Helm

Fleetwood Town · M

7.9

Match Events

15'

M. Helm↳ E. Ennis

40'

Ched Evans

41'

Shaun Rooney

60'

C. Clarke← C. Lakin

62'

D. E. Osong← W. Davies

68'

A. Adomah← V. Harper

68'

J. Matt← A. Pressley

69'

M. Virtue-Thick← M. Helm

79'

A. Pattison← J. Jellis

79'

A. Loupalo-Bi← D. Kanu

89'

O. Devonport← C. Evans

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallFleetwood

Overview

59%Possession41%

18Total Shots6

5Corners5

6Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots6

4On Target1

11Off Target3

3Blocked2

12Inside Box4

6Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

422Total Passes299

312Accurate Passes187

74%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls14

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1