Fleetwood Town 2–0 Walsall: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Walsall

J. Bolton 17'

S. Rooney 12'

1/28/2025

League Two · Round 29Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Fleetwood Town39%

×Draw26%

Walsall36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.34

Fleetwood Town

1.41

Walsall

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.61

creates per match

1.78

0.91

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.61

Walsall

1.78

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

0.91

Walsall

1.20

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.43scores less

Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

64%

Fleetwood Town or Walsall

74%

Draw or Walsall

61%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

18%

Walsall wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

76%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

41%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

17%

Walsall 1+ goals

74%

Walsall 2+ goals

39%

Walsall 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

52%

Walsall (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.61 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Walsall attack 1.78 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

39%

level

26%

Walsall scores more

36%

Fleetwood Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Bolton

Fleetwood Town · D

8.5

Match Events

12'

S. Rooney↳ Mackenzie Hunt

17'

J. Bolton↳ Mackenzie Hunt

39'

Jamie Jellis

57'

J. Gordon← A. Adomah

61'

M. Virtue-Thick← H. Neal

68'

C. Lakin← J. Jellis

68'

D. Johnson← E. Wheatley

70'

D. Mayor← M. Helm

70'

O. Devonport← R. Graydon

73'

James Bolton

76'

Kian Harratt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodWalsall

Overview

43%Possession57%

4Total Shots11

3Corners7

9Fouls16

Shots

4Total Shots11

2On Target3

1Off Target7

1Blocked1

3Inside Box7

1Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

264Total Passes349

149Accurate Passes220

56%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1