Walsall 3–1 Bromley: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bromley

C. Clarke 90'

R. Finnigan 80'

D. Kanu 64'

B. Krauhaus 18'

11/29/2025

League Two · Round 18Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Walsall41%

×Draw26%

Bromley33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchBromley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.26

Walsall

1.42

Bromley

1.26

Walsall creates 13% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.06

creates per match

1.13

1.39

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Walsall

1.06

Bromley

1.13

allows per match

Walsall

1.39

Bromley

1.78

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

Walsall-0.06on par

Bromley+0.44scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Bromley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

67%

Walsall or Bromley

74%

Draw or Bromley

59%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

19%

Bromley wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

76%

Walsall 2+ goals

41%

Walsall 3+ goals

17%

Bromley 1+ goals

72%

Bromley 2+ goals

36%

Bromley 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

55%

Bromley (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

Bromley away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.78 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.06 + Bromley defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bromley attack 1.13 + Walsall defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Walsall scores more

41%

level

26%

Bromley scores more

33%

Walsall at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

C. Clarke

Walsall · M

7.9

Match Events

12'

Ashley Charles

18'

B. Krauhaus↳ M. Pinnock

46'

C. Barrett← V. Harper

46'

B. Comley← L. Warrington

46'

63'

64'

64'

64'

78'

B. Thompson← B. Krauhaus

80'

R. Finnigan↳ P. Farquharson

82'

A. Adomah← J. Matt

82'

N. Kabamba← C. Whitely

83'

J. Arthurs← W. Hondermarck

90+4'

R. Browne← D. Kanu

90'

C. Clarke↳ A. Adomah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallBromley

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots13

2.64Expected Goals (xG)1.15

4Corners9

14Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots13

6On Target4

4Off Target2

1Blocked7

11Inside Box10

0Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

275Total Passes266

166Accurate Passes132

60%Pass Accuracy50%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3