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Bromley vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Bromley
Bromley
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Walsall
Walsall
O. Sowunmi 67'
M. Pinnock 60'
B. Thompson 37'
J. Okeke 62'
5/2/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 46Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bromley43%
×Draw24%
Walsall33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bromley
1.66
Walsall
1.43

Bromley creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bromley
2.02
Walsall
1.85

allows per match

Bromley
1.00
Walsall
1.29

finishing

Bromley-0.16scores less
Walsall-0.03on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromley ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bromley or draw
67%
Bromley or Walsall
76%
Draw or Walsall
57%

Winning margin

Bromley wins by 2+
22%
Walsall wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bromley 1+ goals
81%
Bromley 2+ goals
49%
Bromley 3+ goals
23%
Walsall 1+ goals
76%
Walsall 2+ goals
42%
Walsall 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bromley (draw refunded)
56%
Walsall (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromley at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromley attack 2.02 + Walsall defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.66

Walsall attack 1.85 + Bromley defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bromley scores more
43%
level
24%
Walsall scores more
33%

Bromley at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
M. PinnockBromleyBromley · M
9.2

Match Events

30'
Kacper Łopata
33'
Mason Hancock
35'
Aden Flint
37'
B. Thompson↳ A. Charles
44'
J. Okeke← H. Burke
60'
M. Pinnock↳ N. Kabamba
62'
J. Jellis← A. Pressley
62'
A. Loupalo-Bi← A. Adomah
62'
J. Okeke↳ A. Pattison
67'
O. Sowunmi↳ M. Pinnock
85'
B. Krauhaus← M. Ifill
88'
Jamie Jellis
90'
V. Harper← M. Hancock

Possession

54%Bromley

Shots

22Bromley

Pass accuracy

52%Bromley

Statistics

BromleyWalsall
Overview
54%Possession46%
22Total Shots13
2.01Expected Goals (xG)1.79
11Corners5
4Fouls10
Shots
22Total Shots13
7On Target5
7Off Target4
8Blocked4
13Inside Box7
9Outside Box6
Passing
54%Possession46%
370Total Passes317
266Accurate Passes210
72%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
4Fouls10
0Yellow Cards4
2Offsides1

League Two: Bromley 3–1 Walsall

Bromley beat Walsall 3-1 in League Two on May 2, 2026.

Goals: B. Thompson (37'), M. Pinnock (60'), J. Okeke (62'), O. Sowunmi (67').

Bromley controlled possession (54%) and registered 22 shots to 13.

The match was played at Hayes Lane in London.