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Bromley vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Bromley
Bromley
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Walsall
Walsall
H. McKirdy 55'
B. Thompson 7'
J. Matt 70'
L. Amantchi 45+1'
3/13/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 37Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Bromley43%
×Draw24%
Walsall32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bromley
1.61
Walsall
1.36

Bromley creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bromley
2.02
Walsall
1.86

allows per match

Bromley
0.87
Walsall
1.21

finishing

Bromley-0.35scores less
Walsall+0.04on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromley ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bromley or draw
68%
Bromley or Walsall
76%
Draw or Walsall
57%

Winning margin

Bromley wins by 2+
22%
Walsall wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bromley 1+ goals
80%
Bromley 2+ goals
48%
Bromley 3+ goals
22%
Walsall 1+ goals
74%
Walsall 2+ goals
39%
Walsall 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bromley (draw refunded)
57%
Walsall (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromley at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.87 · 6 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.21 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromley attack 2.02 + Walsall defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.61

Walsall attack 1.86 + Bromley defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bromley scores more
43%
level
24%
Walsall scores more
32%

Bromley at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
B. WebsterBromleyBromley · D
7.3

Match Events

7'
B. Thompson↳ C. Congreve
19'
L. Amantchi← E. Harrison
28'
David Okagbue
40'
Jamille Matt
45+1'
L. Amantchi↳ O. McEntee
46'
H. McKirdy← K. Grant
55'
H. McKirdy↳ M. Cheek
70'
J. Matt↳ C. Barrett
74'
B. Ilunga← C. Congreve
81'
Connor Barrett
87'
N. Kabamba← M. Cheek
88'
L. Dennis← A. Charles

Possession

52%Bromley

Shots

6Bromley

Pass accuracy

50%Bromley

Statistics

BromleyWalsall
Overview
52%Possession48%
6Total Shots10
7Corners2
7Fouls11
Shots
6Total Shots10
3On Target5
2Off Target3
1Blocked2
4Inside Box7
2Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
306Total Passes288
187Accurate Passes172
61%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls11
0Yellow Cards3
5Offsides0

League Two: Bromley 2–2 Walsall

Bromley and Walsall drew 2-2 in League Two on March 13, 2025.

Goals: B. Thompson (7'), L. Amantchi (45+1'), H. McKirdy (55'), J. Matt (70').

Bromley controlled possession (52%) and registered 6 shots to 10.

The match was played at Hayes Lane in London.