Walsall 2–1 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Walsall

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bristol Rovers

A. Pressley 78', 69'

F. Cavegn 27'

10/4/2025

League Two · Round 11Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Walsall31%

×Draw27%

Bristol Rovers42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.36

Walsall

1.13

Bristol Rovers

1.36

Bristol Rovers creates 20% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.06

creates per match

1.33

1.39

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Walsall

1.06

Bristol Rovers

1.33

allows per match

Walsall

1.39

Bristol Rovers

1.20

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Walsall-0.06on par

Bristol Rovers-0.06on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

58%

Walsall or Bristol Rovers

73%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

69%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

12%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

68%

Walsall 2+ goals

31%

Walsall 3+ goals

11%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

74%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

39%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

43%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.06 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Bristol Rovers attack 1.33 + Walsall defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Walsall scores more

31%

level

27%

Bristol Rovers scores more

42%

Bristol Rovers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Pressley

Walsall · F

8.3

Match Events

20'

Alfie Chang

27'

F. Cavegn↳ E. Harrison

39'

Ellis Harrison

46'

B. Comley← L. Warrington

46'

C. Clarke← R. Finnigan

57'

P. Farquharson← H. Burke

65'

J. Jellis← C. Lakin

67'

K. Conteh← J. McEachran

69'

A. Pressley↳ V. Harper

75'

A. Adomah← D. Kanu

77'

R. Sotiriou← B. Bilongo

78'

A. Pressley↳ C. Barrett

83'

Jack Sparkes

84'

Courtney Clarke

87'

F. Issaka← E. Harrison

87'

O. Dewsbury← L. Thomas

90+10'

Brandon Comley

90+3'

Evan Weir

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallBristol

Overview

33%Possession67%

6Total Shots6

3Corners2

12Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots6

2On Target3

2Off Target2

2Blocked1

4Inside Box6

2Outside Box0

Passing

33%Possession67%

218Total Passes460

130Accurate Passes345

60%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1