Bristol Rovers 2–0 Walsall: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Walsall

K. Balmer 64'

Y. Akhamrich 61'

2/3/2026

League Two · Round 26Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Bristol Rovers34%

×Draw25%

Walsall41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.49

Bristol Rovers

1.34

Walsall

1.49

Walsall creates 11% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

1.40

creates per match

1.85

1.13

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.40

Walsall

1.85

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.13

Walsall

1.29

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.03on par

Walsall-0.03on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

59%

Bristol Rovers or Walsall

75%

Draw or Walsall

66%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

15%

Walsall wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

74%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

39%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

15%

Walsall 1+ goals

77%

Walsall 2+ goals

44%

Walsall 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

46%

Walsall (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 14 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.40 + Walsall defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Walsall attack 1.85 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

34%

level

25%

Walsall scores more

41%

Walsall at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. Balmer

Bristol Rovers · D

9.2

Match Events

43'

Jack Sparkes

59'

Alexander Pattison

61'

Y. Akhamrich↳ S. Forde

64'

K. Balmer

66'

A. Pressley← A. Adomah

67'

C. Lakin← A. Chang

67'

R. Richards← C. Clarke

83'

J. Senior← Y. Akhamrich

87'

M. Rijks← F. Cavegn

90+5'

T. Moore← E. Harrison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolWalsall

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots14

5Corners5

8Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots14

6On Target3

2Off Target4

2Blocked7

7Inside Box7

3Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

329Total Passes373

210Accurate Passes243

64%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4