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Walsall vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
K. Phillips 32'
S. Spence 90+1'
C. Taylor 79'
9/25/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Walsall32%
×Draw27%
Bristol Rovers40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.14
Bristol Rovers
1.31

Bristol Rovers creates 15% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.01
Bristol Rovers
1.34

allows per match

Walsall
1.27
Bristol Rovers
1.26

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par
Bristol Rovers-0.11scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
60%
Walsall or Bristol Rovers
73%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
68%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
13%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
68%
Walsall 2+ goals
32%
Walsall 3+ goals
11%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
73%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
38%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
44%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.26 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Bristol Rovers attack 1.34 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Walsall scores more
32%
level
27%
Bristol Rovers scores more
40%

Bristol Rovers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
K. PhillipsWalsallWalsall · M
7.5

Match Events

26'
Jack Earing
32'
K. Phillips
57'
Connor Taylor
60'
E. Osadebe← B. Kiernan
66'
Cian Harries
69'
A. Collins← G. Whelan
70'
Z. Mills← K. Phillips
74'
J. Brown← A. Evans
78'
R. Menayese← E. Osadebe
79'
C. Taylor↳ B. Pitman
85'
Hayden White
90'
S. Spence← H. Saunders
90+1'
S. Spence

Possession

36%Walsall

Shots

12Walsall

Pass accuracy

46%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallBristol
Overview
36%Possession64%
12Total Shots13
0Corners10
15Fouls7
Shots
12Total Shots13
2On Target3
5Off Target4
5Blocked6
7Inside Box8
5Outside Box5
Passing
36%Possession64%
249Total Passes442
161Accurate Passes338
65%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls7
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

League Two: Walsall 1–2 Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers beat Walsall 2-1 in League Two on September 25, 2021.

Goals: K. Phillips (32'), C. Taylor (79'), S. Spence (90+1').

Bristol Rovers controlled possession (64%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.