Bristol Rovers 1–0 Walsall: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Walsall

A. Collins 90'

1/29/2022

League Two · Round 29Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Bristol Rovers34%

×Draw25%

Walsall41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.46

Bristol Rovers

1.30

Walsall

1.46

Walsall creates 12% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.40

creates per match

1.78

1.13

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.40

Walsall

1.78

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.13

Walsall

1.20

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.03on par

Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

59%

Bristol Rovers or Walsall

75%

Draw or Walsall

66%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

15%

Walsall wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

73%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

37%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

14%

Walsall 1+ goals

77%

Walsall 2+ goals

43%

Walsall 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

45%

Walsall (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 14 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.40 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Walsall attack 1.78 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

34%

level

25%

Walsall scores more

41%

Walsall at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Thomas

Bristol Rovers · M

7.7

Match Events

5'

34'

34'

38'

38'

57'

60'

63'

68'

E. Osadebe← J. Labadie

69'

T. Shade← B. Kiernan

71'

H. Anderson← S. Nicholson

82'

H. Saunders← L. Thomas

84'

G. Whelan← J. Grant

90+8'

Emmanuel Osadebe

90'

A. Collins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolWalsall

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots7

5Corners5

8Fouls22

Shots

10Total Shots7

5On Target2

3Off Target3

2Blocked2

8Inside Box6

2Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

270Total Passes318

135Accurate Passes200

50%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls22

3Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

2Offsides4

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Walsall

Bristol Rovers beat Walsall 1-0 in League Two on January 29, 2022.

Goals: A. Collins (90').

Walsall controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 10.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.

Bristol Rovers vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Walsall