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Waalwijk vs FC OSS — Eerste Divisie 2018

Waalwijk
Waalwijk
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC OSS
FC OSS
T. van der Leij 80'
J. Uneken 53' (pen)
1/30/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 25Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Waalwijk47%
×Draw23%
FC OSS30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waalwijk
1.78
FC OSS
1.39

Waalwijk creates 28% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Waalwijk
2.02
FC OSS
1.19

allows per match

Waalwijk
1.59
FC OSS
1.54

finishing

Waalwijk-0.22scores less
FC OSS-0.36scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

FC OSS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw
70%
Waalwijk or FC OSS
77%
Draw or FC OSS
53%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+
25%
FC OSS wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals
83%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
53%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
26%
FC OSS 1+ goals
75%
FC OSS 2+ goals
40%
FC OSS 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)
61%
FC OSS (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.59 · 10 matches

FC OSS away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.54 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 2.02 + FC OSS defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.78

FC OSS attack 1.19 + Waalwijk defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Waalwijk scores more
47%
level
23%
FC OSS scores more
30%

Waalwijk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
H. KusterWaalwijkWaalwijk · M
8.3

Match Events

34'
Mart Remans
52'
Julian Kuijpers
53'
J. UnekenPenalty
63'
L. Mol← J. Kuijpers
63'
K. de Wit← M. Remans
63'
M. de Lannoy← M. Erkan
76'
M. Hinoke← L. Slagveer
77'
R. van Eijma← R. van Hedel
80'
T. van der Leij↳ H. Kuster
84'
M. van Rooijen← M. Esajas
85'
R. van der Venne← T. van der Leij
85'
Y. van der Veen← L. van Gelderen

Possession

59%Waalwijk

Shots

17Waalwijk

Pass accuracy

52%Waalwijk

Statistics

WaalwijkFC
Overview
59%Possession41%
17Total Shots12
2.29Expected Goals (xG)1.08
6Corners7
12Fouls11
Shots
17Total Shots12
4On Target3
9Off Target6
4Blocked3
11Inside Box9
6Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
493Total Passes339
409Accurate Passes256
83%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls11
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Eerste Divisie: Waalwijk 2–0 FC OSS

Waalwijk beat FC OSS 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on January 30, 2026.

Goals: J. Uneken (53' pen), T. van der Leij (80').

Waalwijk controlled possession (59%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.