Waalwijk 0–0 FC OSS: Result & Stats

Waalwijk

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC OSS

10/12/2018

Eerste Divisie · Round 9Mandemakers Stadion (Waalwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Waalwijk47%

×Draw23%

FC OSS30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaalwijkExpected goals in this matchFC OSS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.39

Waalwijk

1.78

FC OSS

1.39

Waalwijk creates 28% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

2.02

creates per match

1.19

1.59

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Waalwijk

2.02

FC OSS

1.19

allows per match

Waalwijk

1.59

FC OSS

1.54

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Waalwijk-0.22scores less

FC OSS-0.36scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

FC OSS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw

70%

Waalwijk or FC OSS

77%

Draw or FC OSS

53%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+

25%

FC OSS wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals

83%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

53%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

26%

FC OSS 1+ goals

75%

FC OSS 2+ goals

40%

FC OSS 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

61%

FC OSS (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.59 · 10 matches

FC OSS away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.54 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 2.02 + FC OSS defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.78

FC OSS attack 1.19 + Waalwijk defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Waalwijk scores more

47%

level

23%

FC OSS scores more

30%

Waalwijk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'

A. Tahiri← D. Maatsen

75'

K. Vermeulen← H. Mulder

79'

D. Ladan← H. Dogan

83'

P. N'Koyi← R. Oratmangoen

Waalwijk

FC

1

23

15

8

12

34

5

6

21

10

▼

Dogan

26

▼

1

4

5

2

6

▼

10

8

3

9

11

▼

Maatsen

7

Seys

Manager: F. Grim

75'▲A. Tahiri←▼D. Maatsen

75'▲K. Vermeulen←▼H. Mulder

Waalwijk substitutes

18Tahiri15Vermeulen14Walian17Lammers12Ndefe16Zielschot20Rienstra13Koenraad

Manager: K. Wels

79'▲D. Ladan←▼H. Dogan

83'▲P. N'Koyi←▼R. Oratmangoen

FC OSS substitutes

30Ladan7N'Koyi4Borgh9Biezen13Centen14Oztoprak18Janssen20Koeman22Fleuren24Verkoelen29Touré

Eerste Divisie: Waalwijk 0–0 FC OSS

Waalwijk and FC OSS drew 0-0 in Eerste Divisie on October 12, 2018.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion (Waalwijk).

Waalwijk vs FC OSS — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Eerste Divisie: Waalwijk 0–0 FC OSS