FC OSS 1–2 Waalwijk: Result & Stats

FC OSS

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Waalwijk

H. Dogan 56' (pen)

D. Seys 86'

E. Hansson 64' (pen)

1/13/2019

Eerste Divisie · Round 20Frans Heesen Stadion (Oss)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC OSS31%

×Draw24%

Waalwijk45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC OSSExpected goals in this matchWaalwijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.68

FC OSS

1.35

Waalwijk

1.68

Waalwijk creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.65

creates per match

1.77

1.58

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

FC OSS

1.65

Waalwijk

1.77

allows per match

FC OSS

1.58

Waalwijk

1.06

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

FC OSS+0.18scores more

Waalwijk+0.63scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC OSS ↓

Waalwijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC OSS or draw

55%

FC OSS or Waalwijk

76%

Draw or Waalwijk

69%

Winning margin

FC OSS wins by 2+

14%

Waalwijk wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

FC OSS 1+ goals

74%

FC OSS 2+ goals

39%

FC OSS 3+ goals

15%

Waalwijk 1+ goals

81%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

50%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

FC OSS (draw refunded)

41%

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC OSS at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.58 · 6 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.06 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC OSS attack 1.65 + Waalwijk defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.35

Waalwijk attack 1.77 + FC OSS defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC OSS scores more

31%

level

24%

Waalwijk scores more

45%

Waalwijk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Lion Kaak

56'

Etienne Vaessen

56'

H. DoganPenalty

60'

S. Sow← D. Maatsen

64'

E. HanssonPenalty

67'

H. Mulder← D. Rienstra

75'

Norichio Nieveld

86'

D. Seys↳ P. Quasten

87'

K. van der Biezen← L. Kaak

90'

Stijn Spierings

90'

J. Lammers← D. Seys

FC

Waalwijk

1

Vaessen

4

Drost

5

A

Quasten

2

Gaari

6

▼

Rienstra

10

Spierings

11

⚽

Hansson

3

Meulenste

7

▼

Maatsen

8

Tahiri

9

⚽

▼

1

23

15

18

8

12

5

6

▼

Kaak

21

Rommens

10

⚽

Dogan

26

Oratmango

Manager: K. Wels

87'▲K. van der Biezen←▼L. Kaak

FC OSS substitutes

9Biezen14Rommens3Regt20Koeman22Fleuren24Verkoelen30Ladan34Asmelash2Keurntjes

Manager: F. Grim

60'▲S. Sow←▼D. Maatsen

67'▲H. Mulder←▼D. Rienstra

90'▲J. Lammers←▼D. Seys

Waalwijk substitutes

19Sow12Mulder17Lammers14Walian23Heemskerk13Bergkamp18Ndefe15Weert16Zielschot