FC OSS 0–0 Waalwijk: Result & Stats

FC OSS

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Waalwijk

11/21/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 16Frans Heesen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC OSS31%

×Draw24%

Waalwijk45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC OSSExpected goals in this matchWaalwijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.68

FC OSS

1.35

Waalwijk

1.68

Waalwijk creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.65

creates per match

1.77

1.58

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

FC OSS

1.65

Waalwijk

1.77

allows per match

FC OSS

1.58

Waalwijk

1.06

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.63scores more than expected

finishing

FC OSS+0.18scores more

Waalwijk+0.63scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC OSS ↓

Waalwijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC OSS or draw

55%

FC OSS or Waalwijk

76%

Draw or Waalwijk

69%

Winning margin

FC OSS wins by 2+

14%

Waalwijk wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

FC OSS 1+ goals

74%

FC OSS 2+ goals

39%

FC OSS 3+ goals

15%

Waalwijk 1+ goals

81%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

50%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

FC OSS (draw refunded)

41%

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC OSS at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.58 · 6 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.06 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC OSS attack 1.65 + Waalwijk defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.35

Waalwijk attack 1.77 + FC OSS defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC OSS scores more

31%

level

24%

Waalwijk scores more

45%

Waalwijk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Havekotte

FC OSS · G

10.0

Match Events

46'

S. Doucoure← L. Mol

54'

Loek Postma

57'

C. Lokesa← R. Kuijpers

59'

Mauresmo Hinoke

66'

K. de Wit← T. Wildeboer

71'

J. Familia-Castillo← N. Held

72'

T. van der Leij← R. van der Venne

76'

M. Erkan← J. Zimmerman

85'

B. Zorgdrager← D. van Kaam

85'

M. Kramer← H. Kuster

89'

F. Turay← M. Hinoke

89'

Y. Marhoum← M. Remans

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCWaalwijk

Overview

34%Possession66%

8Total Shots23

3Corners8

16Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots23

2On Target7

2Off Target11

4Blocked5

6Inside Box12

2Outside Box11

Passing

34%Possession66%

295Total Passes569

223Accurate Passes509

76%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls15

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2