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Waalwijk vs Den Bosch — Eerste Divisie 2018

Waalwijk
Waalwijk
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Den Bosch
Den Bosch
J. Uneken 88'
H. Kuster 23'
M. Laros 90'
R. Wolters 70' (pen)
N. de Groot 59'
3/21/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 33Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Waalwijk47%
×Draw23%
Den Bosch31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waalwijk
1.82
Den Bosch
1.44

Waalwijk creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Waalwijk
2.02
Den Bosch
1.29

allows per match

Waalwijk
1.59
Den Bosch
1.63

finishing

Waalwijk-0.22scores less
Den Bosch+0.38scores more

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Den Bosch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw
69%
Waalwijk or Den Bosch
77%
Draw or Den Bosch
53%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+
25%
Den Bosch wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals
84%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
54%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
27%
Den Bosch 1+ goals
76%
Den Bosch 2+ goals
42%
Den Bosch 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)
60%
Den Bosch (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.59 · 10 matches

Den Bosch away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.63 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 2.02 + Den Bosch defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.82

Den Bosch attack 1.29 + Waalwijk defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Waalwijk scores more
47%
level
23%
Den Bosch scores more
31%

Waalwijk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. UnekenWaalwijkWaalwijk · F
7.7

Match Events

17'
Liam van Gelderen
23'
H. Kuster↳ J. Familia-Castillo
46'
N. Bakboord← L. van Gelderen
57'
T. van Leeuwen← S. Karlsson Grach
59'
N. de Groot↳ T. van Leeuwen
60'
Y. van der Veen← J. Boetius
60'
D. van Kaam← D. Cleonise
67'
Z. el Bakkali← I. Boumassaoudi
67'
R. Wolters← G. Sille
69'
Roshon van Eijma
70'
R. WoltersPenalty
84'
M. Kramer← H. Kuster
84'
T. van der Leij← G. Roemeratoe
87'
Teun van Grunsven
88'
J. Uneken
90'
M. Laros↳ T. van Leeuwen

Possession

54%Waalwijk

Shots

17Waalwijk

Pass accuracy

50%Waalwijk

Statistics

WaalwijkDen
Overview
54%Possession46%
17Total Shots9
1.41Expected Goals (xG)1.87
3Corners2
9Fouls10
Shots
17Total Shots9
4On Target4
7Off Target3
6Blocked2
12Inside Box5
5Outside Box4
Passing
54%Possession46%
446Total Passes386
361Accurate Passes310
81%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Waalwijk vs Den Bosch

Den Bosch beat Waalwijk 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on March 21, 2026.

Goals: H. Kuster (23'), N. de Groot (59'), R. Wolters (70' pen), J. Uneken (88'), M. Laros (90').

Waalwijk controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.