Waalwijk 2–1 Den Bosch: Result & Stats

Waalwijk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Den Bosch

D. Rienstra 44'

D. Seys 9'

S. Beltrame 75'

2/1/2019

Eerste Divisie · Round 23Mandemakers Stadion (Waalwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Waalwijk47%

×Draw23%

Den Bosch31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaalwijkExpected goals in this matchDen Bosch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.44

Waalwijk

1.82

Den Bosch

1.44

Waalwijk creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

2.02

creates per match

1.29

1.59

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Waalwijk

2.02

Den Bosch

1.29

allows per match

Waalwijk

1.59

Den Bosch

1.63

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

Waalwijk-0.22scores less

Den Bosch+0.38scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Den Bosch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw

69%

Waalwijk or Den Bosch

77%

Draw or Den Bosch

53%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+

25%

Den Bosch wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals

84%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

54%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

27%

Den Bosch 1+ goals

76%

Den Bosch 2+ goals

42%

Den Bosch 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

60%

Den Bosch (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.59 · 10 matches

Den Bosch away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.63 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 2.02 + Den Bosch defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.82

Den Bosch attack 1.29 + Waalwijk defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Waalwijk scores more

47%

level

23%

Den Bosch scores more

31%

Waalwijk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

D. Seys↳ S. Sow

29'

Paul Quasten

41'

Sam Kersten

44'

D. Rienstra↳ D. Seys

60'

Danny Verbeek

65'

R. Sappinen← V. Vermeij

67'

Amine Khammas

69'

S. Blummel← D. Holla

70'

H. Mulder← A. Tahiri

75'

S. Beltrame↳ R. Sappinen

76'

D. Maatsen← D. Seys

79'

Luuk Brouwers

79'

J. van der Sande← D. Verbeek

88'

Emil Hansson

90'

R. Bergkamp← E. Hansson

Waalwijk

Den

1

2

3

4

24

25

▼

Holla

10

⚽

Beltrame

20

Brouwers

11

▼

Verbeek

14

Darri

19

▼

1

4

5

2

6

⚽

Rienstra

10

Spierings

11

▼

Hansson

3

Meulenste

8

▼

Tahiri

7

⚽A

▼

Seys

9

A

Sow

Manager: F. Grim

70'▲H. Mulder←▼A. Tahiri

76'▲D. Maatsen←▼D. Seys

90'▲R. Bergkamp←▼E. Hansson

Waalwijk substitutes

12Mulder18Maatsen17Bergkamp16Zielschot14Walian19Baggerman15Bakari20Weert

Manager: W. Boessen

65'▲R. Sappinen←▼V. Vermeij

69'▲S. Blummel←▼D. Holla

79'▲J. van der Sande←▼D. Verbeek

Den Bosch substitutes

9Sappinen7Blummel18Sande50Heus6Son22Carolina8Marchioni12Omar15Romat21Leijten