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Waalwijk vs Den Bosch — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Waalwijk
Waalwijk
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Den Bosch
Den Bosch
Unknown 75'
C. Lokesa 25'
D. Gravenberch 81'
H. Acheffay 32'
B. Burgering 8'
7/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Waalwijk40%
×Draw25%
Den Bosch35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waalwijk
1.50
Den Bosch
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Waalwijk
2.00
Den Bosch
0.75

allows per match

Waalwijk
2.00
Den Bosch
1.00

finishing

Waalwijk+0.00on par
Den Bosch+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Den Bosch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw
65%
Waalwijk or Den Bosch
75%
Draw or Den Bosch
60%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+
19%
Den Bosch wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals
78%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
44%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
19%
Den Bosch 1+ goals
75%
Den Bosch 2+ goals
40%
Den Bosch 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)
54%
Den Bosch (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Den Bosch away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 2.00 + Den Bosch defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Den Bosch attack 0.75 + Waalwijk defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Waalwijk scores more
40%
level
25%
Den Bosch scores more
35%

Waalwijk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
B. Burgering
25'
C. Lokesa
32'
H. Acheffay
75'
81'
D. Gravenberch

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Waalwijk 2–3 Den Bosch

Den Bosch beat Waalwijk 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 6, 2024.

Goals: B. Burgering (8'), C. Lokesa (25'), H. Acheffay (32'), ? (75'), D. Gravenberch (81').

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.