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Den Bosch vs Waalwijk — Eerste Divisie 2018

Den Bosch
Den Bosch
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Waalwijk
Waalwijk
G. Sille 83'
N. de Groot 66'
T. van der Leij 67'
N. Held 16'
10/3/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 10De Vliert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Den Bosch28%
×Draw23%
Waalwijk49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Den Bosch
1.35
Waalwijk
1.83

Waalwijk creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Den Bosch
1.64
Waalwijk
1.77

allows per match

Den Bosch
1.89
Waalwijk
1.06

finishing

Den Bosch-0.14scores less
Waalwijk+0.63scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Den Bosch ↓

Waalwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Den Bosch or draw
51%
Den Bosch or Waalwijk
77%
Draw or Waalwijk
72%

Winning margin

Den Bosch wins by 2+
12%
Waalwijk wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Den Bosch 1+ goals
74%
Den Bosch 2+ goals
39%
Den Bosch 3+ goals
15%
Waalwijk 1+ goals
84%
Waalwijk 2+ goals
54%
Waalwijk 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Den Bosch (draw refunded)
37%
Waalwijk (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Den Bosch at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.89 · 6 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.06 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Den Bosch attack 1.64 + Waalwijk defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.35

Waalwijk attack 1.77 + Den Bosch defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Den Bosch scores more
28%
level
23%
Waalwijk scores more
49%

Waalwijk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
N. de GrootDen BoschDen Bosch · D
8.2

Match Events

16'
N. Held↳ J. Altena
19'
Godfried Roemeratoe
44'
Nazjir Held
46'
E. Semedo← C. El Allachi
61'
G. Sille← D. Verbeek
61'
B. Wang← M. Laros
66'
N. de Groot↳ K. Monzialo
67'
T. van der Leij↳ D. van Kaam
77'
C. Lokesa← R. van der Venne
77'
R. Kuijpers← T. van der Leij
77'
J. Uneken← D. Cleonise
78'
Jesper Uneken
83'
G. Sille↳ K. Monzialo
84'
H. Kuster← R. van Hedel
90+4'
D. Kuijpers← K. Monzialo

Possession

56%Den

Shots

10Den

Pass accuracy

50%Den

Statistics

DenWaalwijk
Overview
56%Possession44%
10Total Shots16
11Corners13
11Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots16
3On Target7
6Off Target3
1Blocked6
4Inside Box13
6Outside Box3
Passing
56%Possession44%
434Total Passes349
343Accurate Passes272
79%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls8
0Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Den Bosch vs Waalwijk

Den Bosch and Waalwijk drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on October 3, 2025.

Goals: N. Held (16'), N. de Groot (66'), T. van der Leij (67'), G. Sille (83').

Den Bosch controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at De Vliert.