VVV Venlo 1–2 Vitesse: Result & Stats

VVV Venlo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Vitesse

G. Blancquart 89'

E. Huth 60'

D. Hoogewerf 35'

10/31/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 14Covebo Stadion - De Koel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

VVV Venlo52%

×Draw21%

Vitesse28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VVV VenloExpected goals in this matchVitesse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.56

VVV Venlo

2.19

Vitesse

1.56

VVV Venlo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.29

creates per match

1.51

1.61

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

VVV Venlo

2.29

Vitesse

1.51

allows per match

VVV Venlo

1.61

Vitesse

2.09

-1.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

VVV Venlo-1.12scores less

Vitesse+0.49scores more

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

Vitesse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw

72%

VVV Venlo or Vitesse

79%

Draw or Vitesse

48%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

31%

Vitesse wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

89%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

64%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

37%

Vitesse 1+ goals

79%

Vitesse 2+ goals

46%

Vitesse 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

65%

Vitesse (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.61 · 6 matches

Vitesse away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.09 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 2.29 + Vitesse defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.19

Vitesse attack 1.51 + VVV Venlo defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

VVV Venlo scores more

52%

level

21%

Vitesse scores more

28%

VVV Venlo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

E. Huth

Vitesse · F

8.3

Match Events

15'

Alexander Büttner

35'

D. Hoogewerf↳ N. Zonneveld

43'

Lasse Wehmeyer

46'

D. Zandbergen← D. van Oorschot

58'

Gabin Blancquart

60'

E. Huth↳ R. Schwarz

69'

T. Reinders← L. Verheij

69'

L. Kromah← J. Eijgenraam

74'

Dean Zandbergen

77'

Lasse Wehmeyer

78'

D. Saddiki← N. Foor

82'

T. Janssen← J. Kluskens

88'

Thomas Reinders

89'

G. Blancquart↳ L. de Blok

90+3'

Y. Ranon← N. Zonneveld

90+3'

J. Pinto← D. Hoogewerf

90+3'

X. Thenu← A. Buttner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VVVVitesse

Overview

55%Possession45%

20Total Shots15

2.02Expected Goals (xG)2.79

7Corners2

15Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots15

7On Target6

9Off Target7

4Blocked2

10Inside Box10

10Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

421Total Passes357

336Accurate Passes281

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls12

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

4Offsides3