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Vitesse vs VVV Venlo — Eredivisie 2026

Vitesse
Vitesse
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo
A. Broja 82'
S. Tronstad 75'
R. Bazoer 57'
L. Openda 3'
G. Giakoumakis 19' (pen)
2/27/2021EredivisieEredivisie · Round 24GelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vitesse54%
×Draw22%
VVV Venlo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitesse
2.02
VVV Venlo
1.28

Vitesse creates 58% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 45 away

creates per match

Vitesse
1.54
VVV Venlo
1.18

allows per match

Vitesse
1.39
VVV Venlo
2.49

finishing

Vitesse+0.00on par
VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

VVV Venlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw
76%
Vitesse or VVV Venlo
78%
Draw or VVV Venlo
46%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+
32%
VVV Venlo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals
87%
Vitesse 2+ goals
60%
Vitesse 3+ goals
33%
VVV Venlo 1+ goals
72%
VVV Venlo 2+ goals
37%
VVV Venlo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)
69%
VVV Venlo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 100 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.54 + VVV Venlo defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.02

VVV Venlo attack 1.18 + Vitesse defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vitesse scores more
54%
level
22%
VVV Venlo scores more
24%

Vitesse at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
M. BeroVitesseVitesse · M
8.6

Match Events

3'
L. Openda↳ A. Broja
19'
G. GiakoumakisPenalty
57'
R. Bazoer↳ M. Bero
65'
J. Arias← T. Hunte
75'
S. Tronstad↳ R. Bazoer
79'
S. Janssen← Z. Machach
79'
Y. Roemer← M. Shabani
80'
T. Hájek← R. Bazoer
80'
O. Darfalou← L. Openda
82'
A. Broja↳ M. Bero
85'
N. Ohio← A. Broja
85'
T. Bruns← S. Tronstad
85'
P. Vroegh← M. Bero

Possession

55%Vitesse

Shots

23Vitesse

Pass accuracy

52%Vitesse

Statistics

VitesseVVV
Overview
55%Possession45%
23Total Shots5
3Corners2
12Fouls14
Shots
23Total Shots5
8On Target2
13Off Target2
2Blocked1
15Inside Box3
8Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
477Total Passes393
394Accurate Passes306
83%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls14
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Vitesse vs VVV Venlo

Vitesse beat VVV Venlo 4-1 in Eredivisie on February 27, 2021.

Goals: L. Openda (3'), G. Giakoumakis (19' pen), R. Bazoer (57'), S. Tronstad (75'), A. Broja (82').

Vitesse controlled possession (55%) and registered 23 shots to 5.

The match was played at GelreDome in Arnhem.