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Vitesse vs VVV Venlo — Eerste Divisie 2018

Vitesse
Vitesse
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo
E. Huth 87'
J. Pinto 24'
N. Ait Mouhou 82'
D. Zandbergen 55'
2/14/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 27GelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Vitesse50%
×Draw22%
VVV Venlo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitesse
1.90
VVV Venlo
1.34

Vitesse creates 42% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Vitesse
1.78
VVV Venlo
1.70

allows per match

Vitesse
0.99
VVV Venlo
2.01

finishing

Vitesse-0.53scores less
VVV Venlo-0.41scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

VVV Venlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw
73%
Vitesse or VVV Venlo
78%
Draw or VVV Venlo
50%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+
28%
VVV Venlo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals
85%
Vitesse 2+ goals
56%
Vitesse 3+ goals
29%
VVV Venlo 1+ goals
74%
VVV Venlo 2+ goals
39%
VVV Venlo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)
65%
VVV Venlo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 8 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.01 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.78 + VVV Venlo defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.90

VVV Venlo attack 1.70 + Vitesse defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vitesse scores more
50%
level
22%
VVV Venlo scores more
27%

Vitesse at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
C. van den BergVitesseVitesse · G
7.6

Match Events

12'
Y. Ouallil← M. Schikora
24'
J. Pinto↳ A. Tahaui
38'
L. Wehmeyer← B. van Zijl
51'
Luuk Verheij
55'
D. Zandbergen↳ N. Matoug
61'
Lars de Blok
65'
E. Huth← N. Bannis
65'
N. Zonneveld← R. Schwarz
66'
N. Ait Mouhou← D. Saddiki
66'
J. Eijgenraam← N. Matoug
72'
Nassim Ait Mouhou
75'
R. Vullers← Y. Sbai
75'
T. Joosten← L. Verheij
82'
N. Ait Mouhou↳ N. Foor
86'
Y. Ranon←
86'
K. te Veluwe← S. Bonnah
87'
E. Huth↳ O. Achouitar
90'
Lasse Wehmeyer

Possession

51%Vitesse

Shots

15Vitesse

Pass accuracy

50%Vitesse

Statistics

VitesseVVV
Overview
51%Possession49%
15Total Shots12
2.21Expected Goals (xG)1.90
6Corners3
13Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots12
5On Target7
6Off Target4
4Blocked1
8Inside Box10
7Outside Box2
Passing
51%Possession49%
390Total Passes386
280Accurate Passes282
72%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls15
0Yellow Cards4
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Vitesse vs VVV Venlo

Vitesse and VVV Venlo drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on February 14, 2026.

Goals: J. Pinto (24'), D. Zandbergen (55'), N. Ait Mouhou (82'), E. Huth (87').

Vitesse controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at GelreDome in Arnhem.