Vitesse 1–4 VVV Venlo: Result & Stats

Vitesse

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

VVV Venlo

A. Büttner 87' (pen)

G. Blancquart 75'

S. Mokono 57'

N. Matoug 13'

M. de Waal 10' (pen)

1/12/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 21GelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Vitesse50%

×Draw22%

VVV Venlo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitesseExpected goals in this matchVVV Venlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.34

Vitesse

1.90

VVV Venlo

1.34

Vitesse creates 42% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.78

creates per match

1.70

0.99

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Vitesse

1.78

VVV Venlo

1.70

allows per match

Vitesse

0.99

VVV Venlo

2.01

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Vitesse-0.53scores less

VVV Venlo-0.41scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

VVV Venlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw

73%

Vitesse or VVV Venlo

78%

Draw or VVV Venlo

50%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+

28%

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals

85%

Vitesse 2+ goals

56%

Vitesse 3+ goals

29%

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

74%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

39%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)

65%

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 8 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.01 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.78 + VVV Venlo defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.90

VVV Venlo attack 1.70 + Vitesse defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vitesse scores more

50%

level

22%

VVV Venlo scores more

27%

Vitesse at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

S. Mokono

VVV Venlo · D

8.3

Match Events

10'

M. de WaalPenalty

13'

N. Matoug↳ E. Gyamfi

25'

Angelos Tsingaras

46'

J. Koller← A. Tsingaras

46'

S. van Duivenbooden← D. Hoogewerf

57'

S. Mokono↳ N. Matoug

65'

T. Verheijen← L. Wehmeyer

71'

R. Ketting← Y. El Anbri

71'

B. Darri← M. Berden

71'

K. Doumtsios← M. de Waal

72'

Emmanuel Gyamfi

75'

G. Blancquart↳ K. Doumtsios

79'

D. van Zutphen← N. Matoug

84'

M. Kreekels← N. Musampa

87'

A. BüttnerPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VitesseVVV

Overview

61%Possession39%

20Total Shots12

9Corners4

9Fouls18

Shots

20Total Shots12

7On Target7

7Off Target2

6Blocked3

15Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

61%Possession39%

425Total Passes278

343Accurate Passes175

81%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls18

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2