Volga Ulyanovsk 1–0 Spartak Kostroma

Volga Ulyanovsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Spartak Kostroma

K. Folmer 33'

3/28/2026

First League · Round 26Trud Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk29%

×Draw26%

Spartak Kostroma45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volga UlyanovskExpected goals in this matchSpartak Kostroma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.48

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.14

Spartak Kostroma

1.48

Spartak Kostroma creates 30% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

0.86

creates per match

1.53

1.43

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.86

Spartak Kostroma

1.53

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.43

Spartak Kostroma

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Spartak Kostroma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw

55%

Volga Ulyanovsk or Spartak Kostroma

74%

Draw or Spartak Kostroma

71%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

12%

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

68%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

32%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

11%

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

77%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

43%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

39%

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 35 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.86 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.14

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.53 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

29%

level

26%

Spartak Kostroma scores more

45%

Spartak Kostroma at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

52'

53'

58'

63'

64'

S. Bugriev← K. Chursin

64'

I. Meshcheryakov← M. Tlekhugov

69'

I. Gershun← A. Murza

69'

D. Kamenshchikov← V. Yakovlev

71'

N. Supranovich← V. Lyakh

78'

M. Chikanchi← D. Pantelic

82'

D. Tikhiy← D. Rakhmanov

90'

D. Novikov← K. Folmer

90'

E. Pshennikov← L. Bagatelia

Volga3-4-3

Spartak4-2-3-1

90

Kalmykov

57

▼

Tlekhugov

35

Enin

10

▼

Pantelic

69

▼

88

18

2

5

19

▼

25

23

3

4

30

7

▼

Murza

90

⚽

▼

Folmer

8

▼

Rakhmanov

99

Kostin

77

▼

Bagatelia

14

▼

Yakovlev

55

Saplinov

Manager: Mikhail Belov

69'▲I. Gershun←▼A. Murza

69'▲D. Kamenshchikov←▼V. Yakovlev

82'▲D. Tikhiy←▼D. Rakhmanov

90'▲D. Novikov←▼K. Folmer

90'▲E. Pshennikov←▼L. Bagatelia

Volga Ulyanovsk substitutes

1Dovgal97Eremeev6Tikhiy31Ustimov17Gershun22Rakhmanov28Novikov92Kasyanov9Kamenshchikov19Rudenko87Pshennikov37Voronin

Manager: Sergey Bondar

64'▲S. Bugriev←▼K. Chursin

64'▲I. Meshcheryakov←▼M. Tlekhugov

71'▲N. Supranovich←▼V. Lyakh

78'▲M. Chikanchi←▼D. Pantelic

Spartak Kostroma substitutes

15Terekhov3Bugriev4Supranovich78Kiselev7Bokov11Nazarenko17Uridia22Nemchenko77Meshcheryakov23Chikanchi38Chupayov