Volga Ulyanovsk 1–2 Spartak Kostroma

Volga Ulyanovsk

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Spartak Kostroma

M. Umnikov 90+4'

M. Chikanchi 33'

D. Zhilmostnykh 6'

3/16/2025

League #1061 · Spring Season Gold - 3Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Volga Ulyanovsk30%

×Draw23%

Spartak Kostroma46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Volga UlyanovskExpected goals in this matchSpartak Kostroma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.75

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.38

Spartak Kostroma

1.75

Spartak Kostroma creates 27% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.75

creates per match

2.25

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.75

Spartak Kostroma

2.25

allows per match

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.25

Spartak Kostroma

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Volga Ulyanovsk ↓

Spartak Kostroma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Volga Ulyanovsk or draw

54%

Volga Ulyanovsk or Spartak Kostroma

77%

Draw or Spartak Kostroma

70%

Winning margin

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

13%

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

75%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

40%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

16%

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

83%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

52%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

40%

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Volga Ulyanovsk at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Spartak Kostroma away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 1.75 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Spartak Kostroma attack 2.25 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

30%

level

23%

Spartak Kostroma scores more

46%

Spartak Kostroma at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

10'

19'

33'

46'

A. Murza← L. Bagatelia

67'

68'

69'

69'

69'

R. Minaev← E. Voronin

69'

D. Polyakh← G. Uridia

69'

I. Rubtsov← K. Korolkov

76'

I. Dyatlov← O. Krasilnichenko

81'

A. Khabibullin← I. Maksimenkov

81'

D. Fayzullin← E. Kovalevskiy

81'

A. Khorin← K. Chursin

82'

S. Bugriev

87'

N. Supranovich← M. Chikanchi

87'

I. Kudryashov← D. Kaptilovich

90+4'

M. Umnikov

Volga

Spartak

68

Gaydash

3

Bugriev

5

⚽

Zhilmostn

18

Ignatyev

14

▼

Kaptilovi

78

Kiselev

55

Saplinov

10

▼

Korolkov

69

▼

Chursin

23

⚽

▼

Chikanchi

62

▼

Kovalevsk

1

Kenyaykin

3

▼

Krasilnic

4

▼

20

15

28

7

▼

Bagatelia

27

⚽

Umnikov

37

▼

Voronin

9

Kamenshch

10

▼

Uridia

Manager: M. Belov

46'▲A. Murza←▼L. Bagatelia

69'▲R. Minaev←▼E. Voronin

69'▲D. Polyakh←▼G. Uridia

76'▲I. Dyatlov←▼O. Krasilnichenko

81'▲A. Khabibullin←▼I. Maksimenkov

Volga Ulyanovsk substitutes

70Murza14Minaev99Polyakh49Dyatlov30Khabibullin8Rakhmanov22Rakhmanov47Kravtsov48Danilov77Bilalov80Novikov86Shaykhutdinov

Manager: E. Taranukhin

69'▲I. Rubtsov←▼K. Korolkov

81'▲D. Fayzullin←▼E. Kovalevskiy

81'▲A. Khorin←▼K. Chursin

87'▲N. Supranovich←▼M. Chikanchi

87'▲I. Kudryashov←▼D. Kaptilovich

Spartak Kostroma substitutes

13Rubtsov50Fayzullin80Khorin4Supranovich24Kudryashov1Kosteley7Zhironkin8Sadov56Demyanov77Meshcheryakov91Kulikov

League #1061: Volga Ulyanovsk 1–2 Spartak Kostroma

Spartak Kostroma beat Volga Ulyanovsk 2-1 in League #1061 on March 16, 2025.

Goals: D. Zhilmostnykh (6'), M. Chikanchi (33'), M. Umnikov (90+4').

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Ulyanovsk.

Volga Ulyanovsk vs Spartak Kostroma — League #1061 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #1061: Volga Ulyanovsk 1–2 Spartak Kostroma