Spartak Kostroma 1–1 Volga Ulyanovsk

Spartak Kostroma

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Volga Ulyanovsk

A. Gharibyan 90'

G. Uridia 4'

9/29/2025

First League · Round 12Stadion Urozhay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Spartak Kostroma44%

×Draw29%

Volga Ulyanovsk28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak KostromaExpected goals in this matchVolga Ulyanovsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.93

Spartak Kostroma

1.25

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.93

Spartak Kostroma creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 34 away

1.28

creates per match

0.85

1.00

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.28

Volga Ulyanovsk

0.85

allows per match

Spartak Kostroma

1.00

Volga Ulyanovsk

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Kostroma+0.00on par

Volga Ulyanovsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Kostroma ↓

Volga Ulyanovsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Spartak Kostroma or draw

72%

Spartak Kostroma or Volga Ulyanovsk

71%

Draw or Volga Ulyanovsk

56%

Winning margin

Spartak Kostroma wins by 2+

20%

Volga Ulyanovsk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Spartak Kostroma 1+ goals

71%

Spartak Kostroma 2+ goals

36%

Spartak Kostroma 3+ goals

13%

Volga Ulyanovsk 1+ goals

61%

Volga Ulyanovsk 2+ goals

24%

Volga Ulyanovsk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Kostroma (draw refunded)

61%

Volga Ulyanovsk (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Kostroma at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Volga Ulyanovsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Kostroma attack 1.28 + Volga Ulyanovsk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Volga Ulyanovsk attack 0.85 + Spartak Kostroma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Spartak Kostroma scores more

44%

level

29%

Volga Ulyanovsk scores more

28%

Spartak Kostroma at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Spartak Kostroma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

G. Uridia

25'

Ilya Kalachev

37'

Ruslan Shagiakhmetov

46'

G. Kiselev← I. Kalachev

52'

54'

61'

67'

67'

67'

68'

A. Gharibyan← A. Nemchenko

70'

M. Umnikov← V. Rudenko

70'

V. Yakovlev← E. Voronin

80'

S. Bugriev← M. Chikanchi

80'

A. Murza← G. Uridia

80'

I. Gershun← D. Rakhmanov

85'

S. Puchkov← D. Bokov

85'

K. Chursin← I. Enin

85'

A. Kostin← D. Novikov

90+4'

Nikita Supranovich

90'

Vladimir Shaykhutdinov

90'

A. Gharibyan

Statistics

SpartakVolga

Discipline

4Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1